Way Too Early: Why Trey Murphy could be the NBA's 2025-2026 Most Improved Player

"From Coveted 3-and-D to Leading Scorer—Why Murphy Is Primed for Another Leap Next Season."

For those of you who did not take the time to watch the injury riddled, supposedly cursed, New Orleans Pelicans — fear not. I have. Almost every game this season… even at times to my own detriment.

The Pels finished the season with 21 wins, coming as close to their win total line (which sat at 46.5; according to Vegas Insider) as Joel Embiid did to playing a full 82 games. Once anticipated to be a thriving garden of blooming flowers, they have degraded into dead soil. In spite of all the rain, one seed managed to plant its roots and found new life. The 6'8, 24-year-old from North Carolina has been NOLA basketball's silver lining.

I’m quite aware of the empty numbers enigma for tanking teams, e.g. CHA Kelly Oubre. However, Murphy’s jump in numbers isn’t just a byproduct of absentee playmakers, be careful not to count this as circumstantial. The tape and numbers tell us there’s more here to it than that. In an interview with Yahoo’s Kevin O’Connor, Trey set the precedent:

“There’s a point where you don’t wanna be dependent on other people on the basketball court… I wanna be able to get buckets on my own.”

And he’s done exactly that. Murphy averaged around 25, 6, 4 in 25 game stretch from December 19, 2024 through January 13, 2025 on 63.2% TS… averaging out to 21, 5, 4 across his 53 games on 60% TS— these aren’t empty stats.

Trey has a serious burner, that’s been the focal point for his game since college. He’s a high volume guy, who shoots a deadly 40.6% on catch and shoot threes with almost 6 attempts a game. Murphy’s range starts when he walks in the gym, and it opens up everything off the bounce.

His ability to put it on the floor has improved drastically. His handle a year ago was nonexistent, now effective and smooth and it has allowed him to showcase his combination of silky, springy finishing when he gets in the lane or separate himself from the defender for a quick trigger three. This jump is evident, he’s become patient and decisive in space. A shift in mentality has intertwined with Murphy showcasing some real eye-opening scoring, especially for a guy his size. Trey has seized his opportunities this year and that’s been evident on film, let’s take a look at two clips from this year.

First, a clip here against the defending champs. Trey gets picked up well beyond the arc by Jaylen Brown, but loses him almost instantly in this pick with a snappy between, behind combo. He probes off the screen and attacks Kornet, slithering by him with a low pick up finish. Notice how Murphy is navigating coming off the pick; he uses patience elongating his dribble, paying Pritchard no mind, and scans the floor of the pick— decisive, intricate move coupled with a tough, inside hand finish. That’s NBA buckets at the purest level. Poised, emphatic, and efficient.

Okay so I lied, this next clip is two separate plays but it’s completely necessary because of the matchup and sequencing.

Al Horford, despite his age and speed, is a productive, one of few switchable bigs in the NBA. Yet, Trey is able to navigate to his spots on the floor in these two possessions. The first with a size up, Trey exhibits this newfound twitchy, tight handle in isolation and gets by Horford’s top foot. Freezing him at the elbow, and putting a distance between the two that should never be given to a shooter like Murphy. Minutes later, Trey uses the same set up, forcing Horford to respect his range and every dribble. He reads Horford, stuns him with a hesi via this sequence and finishes with some touch at the cup. Poised, emphatic, and efficient.

Trey’s frequency of touches between 2-6 seconds in the 24-25 season have increased by 15% this season, and the touches that are 6+ seconds have tripled from last season. Murphy has been making real progress with these chances; reaching deep into his brand-new bag: step-back threes, pull-ups from a different zip code, euros, low/high pick-up finishes, a bump-floater or runner in the lane, and astonishing downhill jams.

With a significant bump in touches, Murphy has displayed superstar flashes — back-to-back 40 point games in the end of January against Boston and beginning February verse the Nuggets¹, both on ridiculous efficiency. Putting the league on notice, receiving superstar treatment: doubles, trapping off ball screens, and face-guarding. This attempt to stifle Murphy’s hot hand didn’t stifle his overall impact. Instead, he put up career highs in assists in the following weeks and averaging about 6 a game in the month of January.

Murphy’s found an ideal balance in his offense, and it’s certainly notable. The evidence is there, via Hoopology’s twitter, a graph of all 6’8+ players who scored over 500 points, recorded from March 20th of this year backs this notion.

At this point in the season, Trey was 4th in threes and well above the average for field goals made on drives. Once Head Coach Willie Green gave him the keys to the offense, Murphy was carving out his own way into this traffic jam of an offense. His range, coupled with his newfound off-the-bounce attack, makes Trey look like a sustainable offensive engine.

Trying to approach by putting fandom and bias aside, Murphy has much more to development in his game, even though there have been flashes. He doesn’t always see the floor well, he lacks ability to create for teammates, he tends to miss rotations on the defensive end, and at times he forces the issue with his three instead of getting better looks on the downhill attack. Only time will tell whether he can add some more desirables to his offense such as using his offense to set up teammates, slowing the game down in the half court; nevertheless, his game has taken a profound leap — he may just be the most underrated candidate for nastiest highlight reel². Pelicans Head Coach Willie Green on Murphy’s development:

“We’ve seen this every year since he started playing. First year hitting big shots, second year he starts, we have guys out third/fourth year and he’s continuously growing.”

Murphy’s had some injury concerns for sure, he’s only played one season over 65 games in his career. The upside is the Pelicans have him for 4 more years making slightly less than $30 Million a year, which is a bargain if his production continues.

So what is Murphy’s true ceiling? He’s only 24, his tenure in the NBA has been marked by consistent growth. The frame paired with his shooting, along with capable defense will allow Murphy a fruitful, long NBA career. The Pelicans hit on this 2021 Draft Pick, he’s exceeded all expectations³ … clearly he’s no ordinary 3-and-D. I foresee an All Star appearance in the next couple years. To piggy-back JJ Redick — if the Most Improved Player award had the right criteria, Trey Murphy would’ve been in conversations this year, barring a Torn Labrum, and could be in future years. Best case scenario? A formidable two-way star and a legitimate second or third fiddle in the Pelicans core in the near future.

1

2. Check out Brett Usher’s X, one of my favorite NBA social medias.

3. Draft Comparisons: James Jones and Robert Covington. No offense to these legendary role players.